As the death toll rises after coordinated attacks overnight on several hotels and other key infrastructure across India’s financial capital, Mumbai, several terrorism experts comment on this latest attack.

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Bill Bailey is an expert in Security Science from the School of Engineering at Edith Cowan University, Western Australia

“The Terrorist developments in India are following an intensification of the conflict between the perceived threats as seen by ‘Jihadists’ against those who are considered enemies of Islam. The partition of India in 1948/49 has never been forgotten or forgiven by a large majority of Muslims especially those who did not make the move to Pakistan staying behind in Hindu dominated India as a minority. The growing tension has been fuelled by the Jihadists, who are also supporting separatist movements in Assam and Kashmir. The continued alignment of India to western ideals and economic development has only intensified the alienation that a large majority of Muslims feel has seen them pushed further and further away from their aspirations of obtaining power within India itself to create an Islamic state. This extremely well orchestrated series of attacks demonstrates the growing sophistication of the terrorist structure indicating a well trained and disciplined force that does not bode well for India or the region.”

Nick O’Brien is an Associate Professor in Counter Terrorism at Charles Sturt University, New South Wales.

“India is used to terrorism; over 2000 people were killed in terrorist attacks in 2007 and these latest attacks in Mumbai, India reveal a degree of sophistication that is disturbing.

The well organised attacks took place in south Mumbai which is an upmarket area which includes the financial centre of the city as well as four and five star hotels. Hotels popular with westerners were targeted and eye witnesses report that some of the terrorists were attempting to locate people from either the USA or the UK.

Different methods of attack were also used from taking hostages to killing people with automatic weapons and grenades.
The number of attackers is so far unclear but reports indicate that four have been killed and nine arrested.
This incident has been well planned and executed and reveals the hallmarks of an organised Islamist group: multiple soft, high value targets where ‘westerners’ were likely to be located and the use of numerous terrorists.”

Dr David Caldicott is an emergency doctor based in Adelaide and is the developer of the course ‘Bombs, Blasts and Bullets’, for emergency responders who would be most likely to be those first facing the horrifying outcome of terror on Australian soil.

“My expertise, and our course Bombs Blasts and Bullets (B3), focuses on medical responses to terrorism, but the events unfolding in Mumbai have a couple of potentially important implications for responders.

Firstly, this represents a clear departure from normal tactics, and may mark a ‘shift’ in tactics. We use the analogy of terrorism as an infectious disease in our B3 course. Some, like pandemic influenza, avoid detection and inflict harm by subtly drifting through their tactics. These ‘drifts’ are anticipatable. ‘Shifts’ in behaviour are far more fundamental, and demand a review of how we respond to a truly novel tactic.

This looks like a return to early Marxist terrorist attacks of the 1960s from the more recent ‘extravaganzas’ so favoured in recent times. We have been planning for responses to large events, in which at least the aggressive element is complete within a very short period of time. This event may take days to pan out.

This appears to have similarities with the Moscow Theatre siege, or the Beslan School siege, with a protracted phase. This has a huge impact on emergency response systems, commandeering resources in anticipation of responding to a tragic outcome. This in turn impacts to the well-being of responders themselves, in terms of fatigue, stress and performance.

In an active event, evolving over protracted time such as this, first responders are often forced to provide treatment ‘over the barricades’, resorting to techniques with have evolved out of the SWAT experience in the USA;

The pattern of injuries from automatic small arms fire and small shrapnel will result in a different injury: death ratio, in turn having the potential to cause a change in the type of ‘surge’ of patients presenting to hospitals.

Whereas in the past, it has been reasonably easy to repatriate injured Australians, the nature of this event is that a greater number of those injured will be in an inner quarantine cordon, and access will be more limited.”

Professor Clive Williams is a Visiting Fellow in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at Australian National University, Canberra. He is a member of the International Association of Bomb Technicians and Investigators (IABTI), the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) and the Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers (AIPIO).

“Events are still unfolding so it is a little dangerous to speculate too much. The group claiming responsibility, the Deccan Mujahideen, is an unknown group. Those responsible for the attack are most likely an Islamist extremist element drawing from SIMI (Students Islamic Movement of India) and the Indian Mujahideen. The M.O. (modus operandi) is unusual. Past attacks in Mumbai have been multiple bombings. Previous attacks in Mumbai have targeted Hindus; these seem to have targeted foreigners. The attackers’ reported interest in American and British nationals suggests at least some linkage to American and British actions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The last major attack in India involving shooters was in 2001. The attack may be intended to underline that retribution for occupation of Muslim lands can happen anywhere, but it is also a swipe at Hindu dominated India.”

Associate Professor Robert Heath is a crisis management expert at the University of South Australia.

“The group that has claimed responsibility for the attacks is called the Deccan Mujahideen. This is interesting in itself as what that suggests is that this is a state issue that is also connected up with international terrorism or at least has been made to look so.

What we can say is that there was a co-ordinated attack lasting several hours across 6-7 sites. That included an attack on the international airport, an attack on the railway station and at least 5 hotels including the Taj which when last seen was still burning.

In essence this attack was co-ordinated somewhat similarly to the London Underground or Madrid bombings except that it wasn’t bombings, it was physical attack with automatic weapons. So what we are looking at is potentially several dozen people being responsible for executing the attack. To some people the sheer number of people involved is a bit puzzling, 20 or so is the maximum number one expects for an organised activity like this. But that does not surprise me, as you have to remember the large population size in this case, Mumbai is a very large city and India has close to a billion people so even a small percentage of extreme thinking people can still be quite a substantial number. In a city like Mumbai you have also got poverty and some religious friction (as is current right through the subcontinent and India).

Typically in India in the last few years, attacks have tended to be bombings and have tended to take place in the obvious areas like the debated states in the north, rather than the middle or south of India. Even the most recent attack on a hotel prior to this one was an explosion rather than an automatic weapons attack so there is something slightly different here. International experts are tending to say it was targeting westerners but I am cautious about that. I think it was more a targeting of the state and by that I mean the commercial state, if you like, the ownership of the state and that ties itself in with westerners as what happens is that government officials for example tend to go to those hotels in passing or for meals.

However there is one element that is interesting, in that in a number of hotels, possibly the Taj and Oberoi, that the gun men that got into the facility were looking for people with western passports. I suspect that the plan was to round-up a number of westerners to embarrass the Indian government and negotiate something else they wanted. Again this brings us back to the Deccan Mujahideen and if there is something in the local issues that is worth exploring.

Why Mumbai and why this spread of targets? It is very organised but it is very localised, it is all within the high business area of southern Mumbai, there is nothing taking place in northern Mumbai which also suggests to me that there is a focal point to the terror cell. In other words that it is a very local attack, using local groups and that they have targeted local things that are within range of themselves so I am dubious about this being an Al Qaeda type attack although someone may find a link somewhere down the line.”

Following the foiled terrorism plot in the UK and the new DFAT travel alert for Indonesia, the ripples of change are fuelling the unease of ordinary Australians.

BRIEFING DETAILS:
When: Monday 21 August 2006
Where: Sydney CBD
Time: 10.00 to 11.30am

What makes a terrorist tick?
How can science help counter the threat?
Homegrown terrorism – could it really happen here?

Now it is known that the London threat involved liquid explosives it is clear that terror groups are adapting and learning quickly to stay ahead of the security agencies. What does that mean for Australia and what is science doing to counter the threat?

SPEAKERS:

Associate Professor Robert Heath, crisis management expert, University of South Australia on terrorism in Australia.

Baroness Professor Susan Greenfield, Director of the Royal Institution of Great Britain on terrorism and the brain

Dr Greg Simpson, Director of CSIRO Secure Australia Research Program on science and technology solutions for Australia’s safety and security.

PRESENTATIONS:

Robert Heath’s Presentation:
View Abstract (pdf) | Listen (mp3)

Susan Greenfield’s Presentation:
View Bio | Listen (mp3)

Greg Simpson’s Presentation:
View Abstract (pdf) | Listen (mp3)

Q & A Session:
Listen (mp3 – audio improves after 5 mins)