Hot topics                    

Monday 9 February 2009 (Updated on Tue 31 March 09)

RAPID ROUNDUP: Victorian bushfires – experts respond

Below, experts respond to the Victorian bushfires that have left at least 173 people dead and 2000 homes burned.

The AusSMC also held a background briefing on bushfires recently with the Bushfire CRC containing information about the broader issues of bushfire preparation and trends.

Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Any further comments will be posted below as they come to hand. If you would like to speak to an expert, please don’t hesitate to contact us on (08) 8207 7415 or by email.

These and other satellite images of the fires are available from the NASA website by clicking here

Bushfires in a Nutshell is a new backgrounder document (pdf) which is now available by clicking here.
Please note, this is a draft document intended for background information only.

Further Information on the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Meter and forest fire danger index (ffdi) can be found on the CSIRO website.

Also, check out our Science Blog page where Matthew Clarke and Simon Feeny delve into the psyche of Australians when the chips are down - why are we so generous at giving after a disaster?

OTHER USEFUL LINKS:

One of the more comprehensive website for bushfire contact phone numbers is at ABC Melbourne

Google has prepared a fire map using data provided by the Victorian fire authorities.

On Feb 9, the Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre updated a special climate statement (pdf) on the recent heatwave in south-eastern Australia.

Read a commentary by climatologist Professor David Karoly from the University of Melbourne on the role of climate change in these fires at www.realclimate.org.

For further information on how you can help support the victims of the Victorian bushfires, click here.

READ EXPERT COMMENTS FROM:

Dr Judy Putt on arsonists. Judy is General Manager Research, Australian Institute of Criminology.

Professor Roger Byard on forensic identification. Roger is a forensic pathologist at the University of Adelaide. He was part of the Australian contingent of Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) specialists involved both the boxing day tsunami and the Bali bombings.

Mr Ross Brogan on fire investigation and arsonists. Ross is former chief fire investigator with NSW Fire and now adjunct lecturer on fire investigation in the Australian Graduate School of Policing at Charles Sturt University.

Professor Xinghuo Yu on fire prevention. Xinghuo Yu is Director of the RMIT Platform Technologies Research Institute and is leading a project to help prevent pole fires caused by bushfires. They are developing a smart monitoring system for early warning of developing pole fire conditions on wooden power poles.

Professor Ian Thomas on preparation and his personal experience during the fires. Ian is a fire engineer and director of Victoria University’s Centre for Environmental Safety and Risk Engineering (CESARE). Professor Thomas and his wife protected their property at Glenburn, north-east of Kinglake, during Saturday’s bushfire using bucketed water after the pump on his fire hose and sprinklers broke down.

Kevin Hennessy on extreme weather. Kevin is a Principal Research Scientist with the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship.

Professor Daniela Stehlik on our sense of community. Daniela is Director of the Research Centre for Stronger Communities at Curtin University of Technology in Perth.

Geoff Sussman on bushfire burns. Geoff is a senior lecturer at Monash University in Melbourne and Co-founder of the Wound Foundation of Australia with expertise which includes wound care, burns and skin tears. He’s also Chairman of the Education Commission of the World Union of Wound Healing Societies.

Professor John Handmer on last minute evacuation. John is the Program Leader, Community Self Sufficiency for Fire Safety, at the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) and RMIT University in Melbourne.

Professor Sandy McFarlane on escape plans, trauma , psychological support and under-insurance. Sandy is a psychiatry professor and Head of the Centre for Military & Veterans' Health at the University of Adelaide. He is a leading authority on post-traumatic stress disorder and conducted the first studies into the traumatic effects of the Ash Wednesday bushfires.

Professor Mark Adams on the fire environemnt. Mark is the Program Leader, Fire in the Landscape, Bushfire CRC and University of Sydney.

Gary Morgan on the bushfire threat. Gary is the CEO Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre.

Dr Matt Makin on the welfare of livestock. Matt is from the Australian Veterinary Association.

Dr Pauleen Bennett on pets and animal welfare. Pauleen is an animal welfare expert and researcher with the Anthrozoology Research Group at Monash University in Melbourne.

Dr Mary Omodei on decision making under duress. Mary is from La Trobe University’s School of Psychological Science in Melbourne. She has worked in bushfire research for a number of years with a focus on how humans (eg: emergency services) exert decision making control over complex systems.

Andrew Sullivan on the weather conditions. Andrew is a fire researcher with CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, working on bushfire behaviour, combustion dynamics, and firefighter safety.

Justin Leonard on the design of houses in bushfire prone areas. Justin is an urban design and bushfire research scientist with CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.

Dr Anne Fowler on the welfare of wildlife and pets. Anne is from the Australian Veterinary Association.

Professor Ross Bradstock on evacuation plans and fire ecology. Ross is the Director of the Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires at the University of Wollongong. His expertise is in fire science, fire ecology, climate change and risk management.

David Packham on fire behaviour and fuel loads. David has been specialising in bushfire research and meteorology for more than 50 years. He is a Research Fellow in the Climatology Group at the School of Geography & Environmental Science, Monash University, Melbourne.

Professor Beverley Raphael on the trauma and psychological impact of fires. Beverley heads a specialist research unit which tackles the mental health issues associated with disasters, terrorism and other adversity at the University of Western Sydney's School of Medicine.

Associate Professor Robert Heath on arsonists, trauma, bushfire preparedness and community expectations. Robert is a psychologist and crisis management expert at the University of South Australia.

Professor David Bowman on bushfire management. David is an expert in forest ecology and bushfire management. He is based at the School of Plant Science at the University of Tasmania.

Dr Judy Putt is General Manager Research, Australian Institute of Criminology.

“Arson costs the Australian community $1.6 billion each year. The vast majority of vegetation fires in Australia are caused by people with around half – some 20,000 to 30,000 each year – deliberately lit.

Most arsonists are young, male and, although unlikely to have had a previous recorded conviction for arson, are likely to have been convicted of other offences. They are rarely dedicated arsonists or pyromaniacs but general offenders who happen to light fires. Their various motivations include excitement, recognition and attention, revenge, material gain, vandalism, or for no reason at all.”

Professor Roger Byard is a forensic pathologist at the University of Adelaide. He was part of the Australian contingent of Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) specialists involved both the boxing day tsunami and the Bali bombings.


“The scale of this tragedy is so extraordinary that we must make sure that the identification process is done very carefully. It is a scientific process that can’t be rushed and if you cut corners to speed things up then mistakes will be made. The Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine has great expertise in this area and they will ensure that the process is done properly.

The difficulty with this situation is that there are so many victims involved with so many different scenes. The questions of how things happened and why things happened have to be explained for each family to have adequate closure. It is not good enough to make sure that 80% of cases are done properly - you have to ensure that everything is done correctly. This process happens slowly because you need information from the police and from a wide range of others before you can correlate the autopsy findings with the scene findings.
I think we are very lucky to have one of Australia’s best centres involved and to have help from many other areas. No-one involved in the process would want it to be done any other way.”

Mr Ross Brogan is former chief fire investigator with NSW Fire and now adjunct lecturer on fire investigation in the Australian Graduate School of Policing at Charles Sturt University in NSW.

On fire investigation:

“To start with, you can’t just walk into a fire scene, no matter whether it’s a structural fire or a wild fire, and say ‘this is arson’. You have to collect evidence to prove that it’s arson or prove that it’s accidental – one way or the other.

The way we do this is to follow the proper methodology of gathering evidence to prove one way or another where and how the fire started. The best way to do this is to start with eyewitnesses, talk to people who reported the fire in the first place, maybe someone who saw the fire from the local area and can give police and fire investigators information about the height of the flames, the location of the flames, the location of the smoke and in what direction the flames were travelling. This goes a long way to assisting a fire investigator to work their way back.

Obviously the fires in Victoria were covering many, many, many kilometres, many hectares, and one needs to go back to where the fire started, which is a mammoth job. Eyewitnesses may also be able to give you information in relation to seeing unusual people in the area.

The next thing is to talk to the first firefighters who arrived and get their information about what they saw and did because sometimes the way the firefighters attack a fire can push it in one direction or another. So the basis of the whole thing is to gather that initial information from eyewitnesses, from firefighters and that gives you the best way to start your investigation.

On arsonists:

It’s very difficult to relate to the typical psychology of an arsonist because most psychologists and psychiatrists have worked on typical arsonists who have set fire to buildings. A lot of the motives that arsonists have in building fires don’t actually apply in wild fires, there are only a couple of psychologies to do with arson and bushfires. One of them is excitement - the person who lights the fire, whether it’s a male or a female (there are recorded cases of both sexes lighting fires), gets some sort of perverse thrill out of starting a fire, watching it intensify and spread. In a lot of cases they don’t take into consideration what may happen once the fire intensifies and reaches structures, the damage it could do to buildings or the fact that it might even kill people. They don’t really think about these things.

The other thing is an arsonist might be on some sort of ego trip where they start a fire, and then alert the fire brigade, alert neighbours, and try to assist to put the fire out. In a way they’re trying to ingratiate themselves to firefighters, to police, and to the local community, saying that they’ve actually discovered this fire and are saving the community. In other cases you might just have someone who thinks, well this is a good time to start a fire to burn off some of the dead bushes and grass on my property, and the fire gets away from them, they can’t put it out, and it gets into dense forest and you have a major bushfire on your hands.

These are the major psychologies for arsonists in bushfire areas that we should be looking at.”

Professor Xinghuo Yu is Director of the RMIT Platform Technologies Research Institute and is leading a project to help prevent pole fires caused by bushfires. They are developing a smart monitoring system for early warning of developing pole fire conditions on wooden power poles.

"Hot dry windy weather blows dust onto insulators creating the perfect environment for a pole fire in bad weather conditions such as very dusty air, or drizzle.

There is no easy way to prevent a wooden pole fire, other than a costly replacement of all pole structures with non-wooden poles. Currently the only way to detect developing pole fire conditions on transmission and distribution lines is with an infrared camera to examine the corona around pole top insulators.

Our initial research over the last two years indicates that arcing and localised heating at metal-wood connections cause ignition. Both wooden and metal crossarms can create this condition. Fires can even start at support braces of crossarms. In windy conditions this fire can easily spread to nearby bush starting a bush fire.

But there is evidence of certain patterns that can be used to identify early warning signs of pole fires.

RMIT is developing an automated monitoring system through power lines to detect early warning signs of pole fires using intelligent systems technologies. This system is particularly useful in areas of bushland where pole fires can easily cause bushfires, which are hard to detect until it becomes too late."

Professor Ian Thomas is a fire engineer and director of Victoria University’s Centre for Environmental Safety and Risk Engineering (CESARE). Professor Thomas and his wife protected their property at Glenburn, north-east of Kinglake, during Saturday’s bushfire using bucketed water after the pump on his fire hose and sprinklers broke down.

“Preparation is the key, we have 30-40 metres of land around our house mostly cleared of vegetation other than low-cut grass. That made the task of protecting the house practical. With our protective clothing, we were able to work outside the house for several hours putting out embers and preventing the fire from coming in contact with the house and nearby trees.

The fire approached our property from four directions as it passed through our area but there was no damage to our house or big shed. The radiant heat was intense at times when groups of bushes went up but we were able to avoid severe exposure.

One next-door neighbour’s house was destroyed, as were seven others nearby. Protection of properties is possible, but only with adequate planning and preparation. Fire safety for householders is complex. There is no perfect plan, but residents should observe the following rules:

• Clear bush for at least 30 metres around the house and keep gardens away from the house as isolated ‘islands’
• Have a flexible protection plan in place, but recognise that even then it may not cover all contingencies
• Test equipment and practise using it regularly, including in the dark, on very hot days and without the power being on

Fire is vicious, often unpredictable and you have to be prepared to adjust to the circumstances. Conditions change and things go wrong. When that happens you have to reassess and adapt your plans according to the situation. If you do plan to stay you ideally need more than one person to effectively defend a property, although the experience of one of our neighbours shows even this is possible.”

Kevin Hennessy is a Principal Research Scientist with the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship.

"The extreme fire weather conditions that occurred in Victoria on the weekend were partly due to very hot days in late January and early February, very dry conditions following 12 years of below-average rainfall, and high wind-speeds. The record-breaking heat is part of a 50 year warming trend.

Most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is very likely due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gas emissions.

By 2020 we expect to see more extreme fire weather days, longer fire seasons and a greater potential for multiple fire events like those we saw in Victoria in early February 2009."

Professor Daniela Stehlik is Director of the Research Centre for Stronger Communities at Curtin University of Technology in Perth.

On our sense of community after a disaster :

“Times of national disaster – such as that being experienced in Victoria – remind us of the best of what Australians have come to understand as ‘community’: our capacity to selflessly pull together, our ability for individual leadership and above all, the positive power of giving through our volunteer effort.

Australians have long recognised the important contribution of volunteering as the ‘glue’ that keeps our national community spirit alive. We see such effort in now Victoria, in Far North Queensland and in other parts of the country that are living through tough times, through the effort of bushfire brigades and other emergency service personnel, all of whom are members of their local communities, and are freely giving of their time and energy, often at great personal cost.

Past experiences stress the important contribution of local leadership, particularly during the long, slow recovery process. Such leadership, often informal, becomes more fragile at times of disaster, and so needs strong nurturing. Within post-disaster centralised recovery (such as the establishment of taskforces, now being discussed) it is critical to include local leaders, and to ensure that - while successful outcomes are important - so are the processes by which decisions are made for future recovery. Enabling continued coordination and cooperation between organisations responsible for recovery strategies is vital, as any lack of cooperation can become a risk factor for future community flourishing.

While it should not require a disaster of the proportions of the Victorian bushfires to remind us of these essential building blocks of community, unfortunately, it does. These capacities within us all may not be as visible in ‘ordinary’ times, when our individualistic streak dominates, and we are focussed on ourselves, rather than others. Let’s agree to at least one positive outcome from these events – let’s reconnect with each other wherever we live.”

Mr Geoff Sussman is a senior lecturer at Monash University in Melbourne and Co-founder of the Wound Foundation of Australia with expertise which includes wound care, burns and skin tears. He’s also Chairman of the Education Commission of the World Union of Wound Healing Societies.

"The type of burn suffered from direct heat is incredibly damaging and painful. Radiant direct heat is far worse than chemical burns or even chemical explosions - in that it affects a far greater area of the body and more severely."

“There are many new burns treatment techniques available to hospital burns units to aid the quicker recovery of patients, however it's going to be a long road ahead for those physically recovering from extensive burns. We must also pay particular attention to the elderly affected by burns and those with diabetes - even relatively minor injuries, could be quite severe in patients with existing conditions."

Professor John Handmer is the Program Leader, Community Self Sufficiency for Fire Safety, at the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) and RMIT University in Melbourne.

On community:

“Our research has shown that fleeing at the last moment is the worst possible option; this is where most people have died or been injured. Sadly, this message does not seem to have been sufficiently heeded this weekend with truly awful consequences in Victoria. History and research both show that in past fires this has not been a safe option.

No decision is risk free – any decision a resident makes in a bushfire involves some degree of risk. This fire shows that leaving late can be the worst decision to make. Alternatively, many people made the perfectly acceptable decision that their house was not defendable and decided to leave early. They may have lost their home but they kept themselves safe.

The key thing to remember is that late evacuation is extremely dangerous. You are safer in your house than in your car or out in the open.

At this stage, it is too early to judge the application of the Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early policy but it will be properly reviewed along with the normal review of all policies and practices after a major fire event.”

Sandy McFarlane is a psychiatry professor and Head of the Centre for Military & Veterans' Health at the University of Adelaide. He is a leading authority on post-traumatic stress disorder and conducted the first studies into the traumatic effects of the Ash Wednesday bushfires. His studies into the impact of the Ash Wednesday bushfires are some of the most cited disaster studies in the world.

On bushfires, plans and motor vehicles: Think about tomorrow today - a rare opportunity for active planning:

“One of the tragedies of this disaster is that it appears many people have died in motor vehicles. The tragedy is that most people completely underestimate the panic that they can experience in what it can be like in an horrific bushfire when it really takes off. The media coverage that has occurred in the last 48 hours is something that everybody who lives in a bushfire zone should contemplate, to see the errors that have been made and to think about if they’ve made a plan and they panic, how are they going to stick to that plan? That’s what people often get wrong.

The other issue is that people that are most at risk as the front passes and having something to protect you from the radiant heat is absolutely critical and the place not to be is in a motor vehicle. It’s interesting to contemplate how we often feel safe in our cars, in the days when people in Australia didn’t have cars, you just wonder whether the same death rate would have occurred in these fires, people would have stayed with their homes and may have been safer because they weren’t given the choice.

On resources for psychological support:

“One of the lessons that we repeatedly learn from disasters is that the time that people need psychological support and counselling is not in the immediate aftermath. What people need in the next few days is attention to their safety, provision for their initial welfare needs and being given an opportunity to save whatever they have.

What is always underestimated is the long tail of effect of these events. These are events that impact on communities for years. Inevitably what occurs is that health resources tend to get withdrawn after about a year. After the Ash Wednesday bush fires we studied the time it took for people to begin to seek help from their GPs for their health related problems, depression and post traumatic stress disorder. The peak is about two years after the event. Initially people believe that they can cope with their distress, that time will get it better, but the evidence is that often it doesn’t and when they come forward wanting help, the specialist services that have been put in place have disappeared. There is a real need for planners not to make that same mistake, that represents a significant risk.

On under-insuring your home:

“Everybody that lives in a bushfire prone house should look at their insurance policies today because many homes cost a lot more to re-build than people have them insured for and people always underestimate the value of the contents of their home. One of the tragedies that will occur after these fires is that many people will find that although they are insured, the insurance won’t cover what they’ve lost.”

Professor Mark Adams is the Program Leader, Fire in the Landscape, Bushfire CRC and University of Sydney

On the environment:

"We live in a land shaped by fire but as a society we are still learning about the full impact of major bushfires across a whole range of ecological and biological systems. I have spent more than 30 years in the forests that are burning in Victoria this week, including being there during the Ash Wednesday bushfires in 1983. But I have never seen weather and other conditions as extreme as they were on Saturday. The fire weather was unprecedented.

We do not have all the evidence yet to fully explain this day in terms of climate change. However, all the science to date shows that we can expect more extreme weather in the years to come - that includes hotter days and drier landscapes across southern Australia.

The science also suggests that an increase in the carbon in the atmosphere will promote a more vigorous growth of our forests potentially increasing the fuel loads in years to come."

Gary Morgan is the CEO Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre

On the bushfire threat:

"This weekend's fires highlight the importance of scientific research in order to improve our understanding of the multiple impacts of bushfires.

Climate change, weather and drought are altering the nature, ferocity and duration of bushfires and an ageing and declining volunteer population are challenging the way fire agencies are going to be able to manage these events.

These issues are being made worse by the expanding rural-urban edge in our cities and regional towns. The fires on the suburban outskirts of Bendigo and Narre Warren on Saturday, for example, show that many communities need to rethink the notion of who lives in a bushfire zone and who needs to be educated and prepared.

Today the fires are still burning and many communities remain under threat. We need to be watching closely for what goes right as well as what goes wrong - so as a nation we can learn to better deal with this ongoing threat of bushfire."

Dr Matt Makin from the Australian Veterinary Association.

On the welfare of livestock:

“The affects of fires on livestock can be extremely devastating, often resulting in a slow and painful death. This is particularly the case for sheep and cattle which often suffer extensive burns to their feet, face, udders, anus and vulva.

Prompt triage of injured livestock is critical to determine the likelihood of survival and the degree of pain and suffering. The harsh reality is that often the most appropriate treatment for livestock injured by fires is euthanasia – this assessment must be made by a veterinarian or DPI representative. We are fortunate we have the ability to alleviate suffering in this way.

It is unacceptable to permit critically injured livestock to suffer unnecessarily and, when safe to do so, such animals require urgent attention. Observing animals in distress following a bushfire can be one of the most devastating experiences not only for the animals but also for the people involved.

The most critical issue facing livestock following the fires will be the availability of fodder and drinking water that is not contaminated by ash and other debris. Safe disposal of animals who have perished because of the fires is an important consideration for farmers and local government to address collectively.”

Dr Pauleen Bennett is an animal welfare expert and researcher with the Anthrozoology Research Group at Monash University in Melbourne.

On pets and animal welfare:

"People thinking of adopting a pet might want to do this now to free up space at shelters for animals coming in from the fire areas. Once the emergency has passed, the shelters will also need foster homes and permanent homes for displaced pets unable to be reunited with owners.

The work that shelters are doing now, like Animal Aid Trust down at Coldstream, and RSPCA throughout Victoria, is vital. Pets need to be cared for while people regroup. Most of the shelters are asking for donations of money, food, cages, blankets, so there is plenty people can do to help.

It's really important for emergency centres to accept pets or find somewhere safe to put them during emergencies. People will refuse to leave home if they can't take pets with them.

There was some research work done after Hurricane Katrina that showed that people who lost pets showed higher rates of distress and depression post trauma than people who lost homes etc, so every effort needs to be made to reunite pets with owners and keep families (including pets) together.

Families displaced by fire need pet friendly housing. Forcing families to give up pets to get rental accommodation is likely to increase trauma considerably.”

Dr Mary Omodei is from La Trobe University’s School of Psychological Science in Melbourne. She has worked in bushfire research for a number of years with a focus on how humans (eg: emergency services) exert decision making control over complex systems. (La Trobe media contact:Ernest Raetz on 0412 261 919.)

On decision making under duress:

“Although it remains unclear what factors cause such a decline in decision-making ability, our own research findings suggest that such factors range from inherent limitations of cognitive processing abilities (limitations that are further aggravated by cognitive overload and physiological and psychological stress), to the communication and coordination challenges faced by teams of people having to exercise decision making control over such situations.

The weather situation predicted for Saturday and the fire situation that actually occurred on Saturday would have placed decision makers in situations which exceeded the limits of human decision making abilities on many levels.
It is especially important to note that fire behaviour research internationally has not been able to develop robust fire danger rating scales that cover the conditions predicted for Saturday.

This resulted in the need for urgent decisions to be made under extreme uncertainty. Firefighters in both incident control centres and on the fire-ground would have had to make such decisions in the face of fire and weather conditions outside their knowledge and experience.”

Andrew Sullivan is a fire researcher with CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, working on bushfire behaviour, combustion dynamics, and firefighter safety.

“In south-east Australia, bad fire days are associated with the presence of a 'blocking' high pressure system in the Tasman Sea. This brings hot, dry strong wind from the centre of the continent to the south-east.

The high temperatures and dry air experienced throughout Victoria on Saturday resulted in very low fuel moisture content. Combined with the extended rainfall deficit for much of the state, this resulted in tinder-dry fuel that was very easily ignited and very difficult to extinguish. In addition, very strong winds resulted in fires that spread very rapidly with the wind and were practically unstoppable until the weather moderated following the cool change.

Saturday's fire weather conditions were similar to those experienced on Black Friday in January 1939 and Ash Wednesday in February 1983.”

Justin Leonard is an urban design and bushfire research scientist with CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems. (Quote revised 11 Feb 09)

"The fire weather seen on Saturday in many areas of Victoria with a few exceptions, is likely to be experience by a house at least once during its design life.

Historically, most of Victoria’s house loss has occurred under similar hot, dry and windy conditions. These conditions that promote fire spread are the same conditions that dry out combustible elements in, on and around the home, leaving them more vulnerable to ignition and fire spread."

Dr Anne Fowler is an Australian Veterinary Association spokesperson

On treatment of animal bushfire victims – dogs and cats:

“We first assess the extent and depth of burns. For those animals that can be treated, we treat the wounds under anaesthesia then protect them until they start to heal. We also need to use intravenous fluids, pain relief and antibiotics during recovery. This can take from 2 weeks to greater than 4 weeks depending on the severity of the burn.”

On treatment of animal bushfire victims – wildlife:

“Wildlife likely to be affected include koalas, ringtail possums and kangaroos. Reptiles and echidna are often only found some days later. Treatment includes assessing for other diseases like Chlamydia in koalas. For those animals that can be treated, we treat the wounds under anaesthesia then protect them until they start to heal. We also need to use intravenous fluids, pain relief and antibiotics during recovery. Starting the animals on suitable food is especially important in their recovery.”

Professor Ross Bradstock is the Director of the Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires at the University of Wollongong. His expertise is in fire science, fire ecology, climate change and risk management.

“From what we’ve seen the weather conditions in Melbourne were almost unprecedented on Saturday, probably a record, so it looks as if it’s off the top of the scale. The weather has a huge effect on the intensity of the fires including the rate of spread. Conditions are at least equivalent if not worse than 1939. You couple that with a whole range of other factors, plus some of these fires have broken out very quickly so people have been caught by surprise.

The other disturbing thing is that probably a lot of the deaths are on the roads, in motor vehicles. The authorities have been pushing a policy of trying to encourage people to stay with their property, not to evacuate, especially at the last minute, so it will be interesting to see what the breakdown of fatalities are in terms of whether many people have been killed actually staying with their buildings or not but we just don’t know. But it looks as if there’s a hell of a lot of carnage on the road.

There’s pretty concrete evidence that you’re much safer staying with your building. A lot of these houses actually burnt after the fire front had passed because while they do catch fire, it takes a while for them to burn down, so even if you’re in a house which is on fire in the early stages, you’re actually safer than being outside. But it’s too early to assess things like that; we just don’t have the data.
Many of these towns like Kinglake and Marysville have been burnt out before, it’s a very dangerous environment, the tall forests of Victoria are a pretty dangerous place to live. Under these sorts of conditions it really does make you think very carefully about urban planning.

It might be the sort of conditions we can expect more of in the future under climate change, there’s certainly a fair bit of evidence of that kind around.”

Mr David Packham has been specialising in bushfire research and meteorology for more than 50 years. He is a Research Fellow in the Climatology Group at the School of Geography & Environmental Science, Monash University, Melbourne.

“Disastrous fires have occurred in Australia before. Last Saturday we had the most intense fire weather conditions we have had in forecast history with the exception of cyclone Alby in the late 1970s in Western Australia which, if you believe, was even worse.

Scientifically we understand fire behaviour and for a disaster to occur you have to have 3 things in place.

The first thing you have to have is hot dry windy weather. The weather we had on Saturday was extremely dry – it was spectacularly well forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology who knew it was coming up to 7 days ahead and by 4 days ahead it was certain the conditions were in place for a disaster to occur.

The second thing you must have are ignitions. We have been fortunate that the ignitions on this occasion have not been lighting strikes. This hot dry air does not encourage lightning which is a great help. The ignitions you do get under these conditions are accidental and the odd arson ignition. Under these conditions things that don’t normally start fires will start fires.

The third thing you must have in place to have a fire disaster is high fuel loads. The mismanagement of the south eastern forests of Australia over the last 30 or 40 years by excluding prescribed burning and fuel management has lead to the highest fuel concentrations we have ever had in human occupation. The state has never been as dangerous as what it is now and this has been quite obvious for some time. There has been a total lack of willingness to instigate a proper fuel reduction management program based on the skills and understanding of indigenous people who after all for tens of thousands of years were the stewards of our environment. We have thumbed our noses at what these people did and knew and we just can’t keep on doing it.”

Professor Beverley Raphael, heads a specialist research unit which tackles the mental health issues associated with disasters, terrorism and other adversity at the University of Western Sydney's School of Medicine

"The psychological impact from this bushfire emergency is enormous - it's a time of shock, disbelief and immense grief as people begin to comprehend the size and scale of the tragedy. Our thoughts and sympathies go out to all those who have lost loved ones at this very sad time and all those that have been affected in many other ways.

Bushfires bring devastation on a grand scale - loss of life, loss of homes, loss of personal possessions and loss of whole communities; all the things that are most meaningful in people's lives. In addition, these losses, injuries and other traumatic experiences from the bushfires have occurred on top of the severe impact of the recent heatwaves, the drought and other financial stresses.

We also need to think about the heartbreak of the firefighters, emergency services personnel and volunteers who are fighting so hard to protect lives and property, and providing shelter and support to those affected by the fires. They will be feeling their own sense of grief and distress in the face of such a massive natural disaster.

For many in the community, this will also stir up feelings from the Ash Wednesday devastation and trigger reminders on a personal level - often bringing back memories, sadness, anger and distress over past traumas and losses.

In the immediate term, it's a time when leaders and communities reach out to each other at both the local level and nationally as a coordinated response to oversee disaster relief and support. While we know individuals and communities have great courage and resilience in the face of such crises, the outreach support and concern of others, as well as practical and emotional assistance, make a huge difference to those dealing with such challenges.”

Associate Professor Robert Heath is a psychologist and crisis management expert at the University of South Australia

On bushfire preparedness:

“There has been over 30 years of debate amongst fire experts as to whether people should stay and defend their property or leave early when there is a real that of a bushfire approaching. Personally my feeling is that most people should evacuate in the case of mega fires – i.e. when you have multiple spotting of fires ahead of a large fire front. This is because most people are not psychologically prepared for the noise and heat of a mega fire. This is especially the case when you have children or other vulnerable people that you also have to care for.

The psychology of coping with fire is extremely important. The main difference between a major mega fire and a smaller fire is the heat and the sound which can drive people to distraction, even when they feel psychologically prepared beforehand. As a community we need to work more on psychological preparedness for major fires.

Part of this preparation for staying with your house when a fire is approaching is knowing that you may be on your own for anything from 3 hours to 3 days. You need to make sure that you have things like plenty of drinking water, multiple sets of spare batteries, necessary medicines and provisions that you might need for anything up to 3 days.”

On expectations:

“One important issue we need to address is people’s expectations. There have been very severe fires before, such as the Victorian Gippsland 1898 fire, Black Friday in 1939. However the difference between the current mega fire and these earlier fires is our expectations of rescue teams. The divide seems to have arrived from the 1970s onwards (e.g. Ash Wednesday). The media (including disaster movies and similar television programs) and modern technology has given us the expectation of rapid response times which are unrealistic in extreme bushfire or other extreme situations. In the past people were more self-reliant because they knew they were on their own.

Added to this is our growing population and the continuing movement into bushy suburban areas. More work needs to be done to explain to people that when there are extreme fires, they may well be on their own without help. This may impact on their decision to stay and fight the fire or evacuate.”

On trauma and community support:

“Many people will feel traumatised by this experience. However, it is very important that we don’t tell people how they should be feeling. Telling people that they will be traumatised and depressed is more likely to make them feel traumatised and depressed. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Counselling needs to be made available and publicly advertised but then we need to allow trauma victims to come forward in their own time. It is also important that counsellors are trauma trained because managing trauma is very different to general counselling.

Channelling of good will from the community is very important but should come in the form of money rather than donations of old clothes etc. People tend to be overly generous with their household goods but it is important that whole communities are helped back into normality. Donating food and household goods can, for example, put local businesses under more stress. The most important thing is that money is channelled into effected communities so that local retail and businesses can continue operating.”

On arsonists:

“A number of the fires in Victoria and NSW are suspicious and, based on past statistics, it’s likely that about one in three of the fires was deliberately lit. Interestingly, many people who light fires deliberately are local. They either live in the area or have friends or family members in the area. There are four broad categories of arsonists. Some suffer from a feeling of impotence and light fires to give themselves a sense of being in control. Another group has a psychological attraction to fire and seeing things burn. The third group has a need to be seen as a hero and so tends to light fires to provide opportunities to show heroic traits. The last group likes to build fires in parklands and gullies in urban areas or in buildings and then often stay to watch them burn.”

Professor David Bowman is an expert in forest ecology and bushfire management. He is based at the School of Plant Science, University of Tasmania.

“This is a truly terrible situation.

The fires have been predictable given the extreme drought, heat waves and juxtaposition of people in flammable bush and the experience in other flammable settings especially California.

The Victorian fires are a very serious warning for the extreme vulnerability we here in Tasmania face, this summer and next and indeed until the extreme dry trends cease (which may be effectively never as this has all the indicators of climate change, i.e. the global trends in extreme fire weather). Tasmania is particularly vulnerable given the greater area of forest with very heavy fuels and which have naturally infrequent fire regimes and a lot of folk living right amongst the bush. Most folk have forgotten the disaster of 1967 and what may happen here could be much, much worse given the Victorian experience.”