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What's the science behind the new Fire Danger Ratings and community warnings? Naomi Brown, Bushfire CRC Board Member This fire season the public can expect the warnings and community safety messages they receive to be much more direct. The wording of the messages acknowledges that most people will not be as prepared as they should be. So the information given is designed to optimize a person’s ability to make quick decisions about what they should do. Hence messages in the Fire Danger Ratings (FDR) describe the expected fire behaviour, the potential impacts and what people should do. Bushfire CRC research into human behavior shows that the majority of the people living in bushfire prone areas do not accept or are in denial about the risks they face; the “it won’t happen to me” effect. Many people also think they have a plan but it is not consistent with what a fire agency would class as a well thought out and effective plan. For example – many people’s plan is to wait and see what happens before deciding what to do, a highly inappropriate course of action. This research has greatly influenced the way emergency services agencies will now communicate with people. The defendability of a home and its ability it to provide safe shelter as a fire front passes was the other key driver of changes to the Fire Danger Rating system. Fire Danger Indices are a relative number denoting an evaluation of the rate of spread, or fire suppression difficulty for specific combinations of temperature, relative humidity, drought effects and wind speed. Previously “Extreme” was the highest fire danger rating. Any FDI above 50 was “Extreme” however this was too big a range and did not reflect the limitations this posed for advice on homes as places of safety during a fire, particularly at the higher end of the scale. So the new categories (and FDI scale classification) are a reflection of the increasing amount of extreme fire danger days and the historical patterns of house and life loss in fires compared to the Fire Danger Index. The Extreme category (75-99 FDI) is the upper limit of the FDI where well designed, constructed, prepared and actively defended homes may provide shelter from the fire. Current building standards for building in bushfire prone areas do not consider fires on days beyond a FDI of 100. The Catastrophic category (100+) for the most extreme fire days, recognizes that well prepared, well constructed and defended homes may not be safe during the fire as construction standards do not go beyond a Fire Danger Index of 100. On both of these types of days agencies will advise people that leaving is the safest option as both the historical record and building standards tell us that it will be extremely difficult to defend homes against fires on these days. ------------- If you are a scientist and wish to contribute to this Science Blog, please contact the AusSMC. The opinions expressed in this Science Blog are those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Australian Science Media Centre.
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