New data released today by the Bushfire CRC shows above normal fire potential is expected over most of the south-east of Australia in the coming months. Across southern Australia, above-normal fire potential is expected over much of the southeast, including all of Victoria, south-eastern New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, and the settled areas of South Australia.

An area of northern New South Wales, extending into Queensland, and much of the southwest Land Division of Western Australia also expect above average fire potential. Conditions in Tasmania indicate normal to below normal fire potential, and below-normal levels of fire activity are expected in Central Australia

The map Fire Potential Outlook for Australia 2009-2010 and state by state breakdowns are available here

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Gary Morgan is CEO of the Bushfire CRC

“In the southeast there has been a long period of drought, and in northern NSW and southeast Queensland, apart from the coastal strip, there have been below normal winter rains. Above normal potential is expected in both these regions, and is also anticipated over much of southwest Western Australia due to good wintertime grass growth. In Tasmania above-average winter rains mean below-average potential.

The fire potential has been estimated by taking account of many factors, not just weather and climate. The fire potential also relates to fuel abundance and availability, recent fire history and the amount of firefighting resources available in a particular area.”

Professor David Bowman is Professor of Forest Ecology at The University of Tasmania

“This prediction is very useful in helping people in bushland areas in south east Australia prepare for the coming summer, indeed coming summers. All the evidence is that bushfire risk in increasing due to the sustained warming and drying trend. It seems the rules of the game are changing - serious fires are moving from a rare once a generation event to a more common part of life in Australia. Communities must adapt quickly to this change and such predictions from the Bushfire CRC are an important part of this process. Denial of the danger or looking for someone to blame wont remove the threat rather material and psychological preparation is crucial.”