Research out of South Korea suggests a new kind of central Pacific El Niño dubbed - El Niño ‘Modoki’ - is become progressively more common and is expected to occur five times more often by the late 21st century and could lead to more effective forcing of drought over Australia. Global warming is having and will probably continue to have a dramatic effect on the El Niño phenomenon, which causes weather disturbances and contributes to drought across Australia . Recent studies have shown that the conventional El Niño pattern, characterized by a warm tongue of water stretching across the tropical Eastern Pacific, is becoming less frequent and a new type, or ‘flavour’, of El Niño has become progressively more common. The new central Pacific El Niño has been called El Niño ‘Modoki’, from the Japanese meaning ’similar, but different’ and is characterised by a horseshoe-shaped region of warm ocean in the central Pacific is flanked by unusually cooler waters.
This new research shows El Niño ‘Modoki’ is expected it to occur five times more often by the late 21st century which could lead to more effective forcing of drought over Australia.
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Professor Neville Nicholls is Professorial Fellow in the School of Geography and Environmental Science at Monash University, Victoria.
“This interesting paper reports possible changes in the geographical character of El Nino events in the recent past and projected changes into the future, extending earlier work by several groups. It does appear that some changes in the nature and behaviour of the El Nino are occurring, presumably related to global warming. Such changes would have consequences for the Australian climate and its prediction. However, it should not be assumed that the long drought over southern Australia is due to changes in the El Nino (the paper does not say this, although some readers might jump to this conclusion). Work by several groups in Australia has identified that this drought is related to an intensification of the band of high pressure over southern Australia (the subtropical ridge) and this intensification may have little to do with long-term changes in the El Nino. “
*Prof Nicholls is currently in New York*
Dr. Andréa S. Taschetto is a Post Doctoral Research Fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW
“El Nino events are characterized by unusually warm temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific. However, over the past few decades, the warmest El Nino sea temperatures have appeared more often in the central Pacific. These El Nino like events have been referred to as El Nino Modoki. The El Nino Modoki is generally associated with dry conditions over Australia while the opposite phase of this phenomenon, the La Nina Modoki, is associated with wetter conditions.
If the occurrence of El Nino Modoki becomes more frequent in the future, it could cause more droughts over significant parts of Australia. This research could therefore have significant implications for the nation.”